Håvard Mokleiv Nygård

Research Professor

Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
Håvard Mokleiv Nygård left PRIO in 2021. The information on this page is kept for historical reasons.

Research Interests

My present research is centred on two themes:

Forecasting: Forecasting long-term incidence of civil armed conflict, forecasting regime type, and joint forecasts for conflict and regime type. Developing models (Bayesian and frequentist) for forecasting conflict and regime type.

Political Economy of Authoritarianism:  Regime duration, repression and regime survival, voting and regime survival, autocratic coalition dynamics, especially the relationship between the dictator and the security apparatus. 



​​​​​​​​​​Working experience:

  • Research Director, Conditions of Violence and Peace, PRIO 2017 – 2021
  • Associate Editor, International Area Studies Review
  • Senior Researcher, PRIO, 2014 – 2021 
  • Norwegian Ministry of Defence Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, PRIO, 2014 – 2016
  • Associate Researcher, PRIO, 2010 – 2014
  • Research Assistant, CSCW, PRIO 2008 – 2010
  • Research Assistant for Dr. Tom Segev 2007 – 2008
  • Research Intern, African Council for Sustainable Health Development, Ibadan Nigeria, 2003

  •  PhD in Political Science, University of Oslo (January 2014)
  • M. Phil, Political Science, University of Oslo (June 2009)
  • BA, Comparative Politics, University of Bergen, (June 2004)

Consulting experience :
  • World Bank, on the development consequences of conflict (2010—2011)
  • Human Security Report Project, on education and conflict (2011)
  • NATO-Allied Command Transformation, on strategic foresight (2014—2015)
  • EU Commission, Joint Research Center, on developing a global conflict risk model (2014—)
  • United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, on forecasting conflict and political instability (2014--)





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The following publications are specific to the PRIO Middle East Centre. A more complete list is available at www.prio.org.

All Publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2009) Trekantdramaet mellom Israel, Iran og Hezbollah [The Israel - Iran - Hezbollah Threesome], Babylon 7(2): 66–87.

PRIO Policy Brief

Rustad, Siri Aas; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Fredrik Methi (2020) Are the Coronavirus Ceasefires Working?, Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.
Palik, Júlia; Siri Aas Rustad; Kristian Berg Harpviken & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2020) Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2019, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.

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