Pavel K. Baev

Research Professor

Mobile phone: +47 90 65 71 63

Research Interests

Russia's war against Ukraine; Russian military reform; Russia's conflict management in the Caucasus and Central Asia; energy interests in Russia's foreign and security policy; Russia's relations with Europe and NATO; the evolution of Russia-China partnership.

Pavel K. Baev
This profile contains centre-specific content. View the full profile at PRIO.org.

News & events
Publications
Blog posts
Audio & video

PRIO Blogs

Thursday, 14 Nov 2024

Perplexed Vladimir Putin Reckons With Outcome of US Elections

The Kremlin had confidently expected confusion and turmoil following the US presidential election. Instead, a definite outcome and the commitment to a smooth transition of power are set to shape the US political environment for the next couple of months. The significant majority of Russians preferred Donald Trump as the ...

PRIO Blogs

Wednesday, 7 Feb 2024

Assessing Russia’s Maneuvers in the Middle East Amidst Escalating Tensions

On Friday, February 2, the United States conducted a massive airstrike, targeting terrorist militia bases in Iraq and Syria but reverberating across Russian geopolitical designs. In Russia’s grand strategy, the escalation of tensions in the broader Middle East triggered by the shocking attack by Hamas terrorists on Israel on October ...

PRIO Blogs

Monday, 23 Oct 2023

GRANADA ANDALUSIA, SPAIN - OCTOBER 05: The President of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelenski, on his arrival at the Palacio de Congresos de Granada to participate in the summit of the European Political Community (EPC), on October 5, 2023, in Granada, Andalusia, Spain. 50 European heads of state and government are attending today the summit of the European Political Community (EPC), one of the meetings held on the occasion of the Spanish Presidency of the EU. This is the third meeting of this intergovernmental forum whose main objective is to show European unity in the face of Russia. Among those attending will be the leaders of the 27 EU member states, as well as the British Prime Minister, the Turkish President and the leaders of the Western Balkan countries. (Photo By Alex Camara/Europa Press via Getty Images). Photo: Europa Press 2023

Two Wars Set a Triple Test for Western Unity

International attention has shifted its focus from Ukraine to the conflict in Gaza and its potential impact on global governance. The Western front faces challenges in navigating peace efforts in both regions. The war in Ukraine has all but disappeared from the international news stream since the brutal attack by Hamas terrorists ...

Recorded event

Tuesday, 28 Feb 2023 08:30–10:00 UTC+01

From left: Pavel Baev, Pinar Tank, Marie Sandnes, Nicholas Marsh and Henrik Urdal.

01:25:44

One Year after Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Geopolitical Impacts for Europe, the Middle East and Sahel

A year after Russia invaded Ukraine, it appears that the direct and indirect effects of the war may last for years, and permeate across the world.

PRIO Blogs

Wednesday, 30 Nov 2022

Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Wikimedia Commons

Russian Influence Fades in the Middle East

The 2022 World Cup has been dominating global news, and no one is missing the Russian team among the 32 participating nations, unlike, for instance, Italy or Egypt. Neither has Moscow said anything regarding the controversies surrounding this paramount sporting event in Qatar (Novayagazeta,eu, November 25). This absence from a ...

Recorded event

Tuesday, 19 Apr 2022 12:00–13:30 UTC+02

01:29:28

The War in Ukraine and Its Impact on Energy in the Middle East - MidEast Lunch Seminar

With the war in Ukraine, many of the world’s major energy importers now seek to gain independence from Russian supplies, triggering a worldwide energy crisis.

News

Tuesday, 15 Mar 2022

Photo: Ministry of Defense of Russia / Wikimedia Commons

PRIO Blog Post: Will the Russian-Ukrainian War Resonate in Syria?

In the PRIO Blog Post: Will the Russian-Ukrainian War Resonate in Syria?, Research Professor Pavel Baev and Senior Researcher Pinar Tank writes about the war's potential ramifications on regional dynamics in the Middle East.

Journal article

2021

Between Syria and Afghanistan, crisis management becomes too onerous for Russia

Journal article in UIK Panorama

News

Tuesday, 19 Oct 2021

The Bab al-Salam border crossing between Turkey and Syria in the Syrian town of Azaz, as seen from the Syrian side during the Syrian Civil War. The Turkish border gate is called Öncüpınar. Photo: Qasioun News Agency via Wikimedia Commons

MidEast Policy Brief: UN Humanitarian Aid Comes to Syria for Another Year

In a MidEast Policy Brief, Research Professor Pavel Baev writes about the future of UN humanitarian aid to Syria, following the UN Security Council adoption of Resolution 2585 on 9 July 2021.

PRIO Blogs

Wednesday, 31 Jul 2024

Russian Intrigues in Middle East Surge

On July 24, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was summoned to Moscow for a secret meeting in the Kremlin with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the same day that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of the US Congress. The visit was announced only the following day when al-Assad ...

PRIO Blogs

Thursday, 30 Nov 2023

MOSCOW, RUSSIA - NOVEMBER 9: (RUSSIA OUT) Russian President Vladimir Putin enters the hall during the award ceremony marking the 75th anniversary of Russia's Federal Medical-Biological Agency (FMBA) at the State Kremlin Palace, November 9, 2022, in Moscow, Russia. President Putin is expected to skip the G20 Leaders Summit and APEC Summit this November. (Photo by Contributor/Getty Images). Photo: 2022 Contributor#8523328

Russian Influence Diminished in Remaking the Middle East

The Kremlin has welcomed the Israel-Hamas truce in Gaza that began on November 24. The pause, however, does not fit into Russia’s larger designs for the Middle East. From Moscow’s perspective, further escalation would have been a much better option in disrupting the US-led world order. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka ...

PRIO Blogs

Tuesday, 17 Oct 2023

GAZA, PALESTINE - 2023/10/10: Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Gaza. On Oct 7, the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched a surprise attack in Israel. Following that attack, Israeli army forces retaliated by launching air strikes in Gaza. As of Oct 10, reports say that over 1,000 Israelis and over 900 Palestinians died from this conflict. (Photo by Ahmed Zakot/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images). Photo: © 2023 SOPA Images

Moscow Seeks to Benefit From Fighting in Gaza

Russia’s war against Ukraine crosses the 600-day mark this week, and the fighting between Israel and the Hamas terrorists based in Gaza is on its tenth day. The effects of the latter on the former are still emerging. The interplay between these two major breakdowns in the world order is ...

PRIO Blogs

Wednesday, 14 Dec 2022

The Engels airfield is hundreds of miles from the border to Ukraine. Russian Defense Ministry

As Ukraine Conducts Deep Strikes, Russia Turns to Iran

On December 5, two Ukrainian strikes on Russian air bases deep into Russian territory and far from the frontlines produced a painful shock for Russian forces and could signify a further mutation, if not escalation, of the war. Each time Ukrainian forces deliver a long-range high-precision attack — from the ...

PRIO Blogs

Thursday, 21 Jul 2022

President of Russia Vladimir Putin meeting with Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei and President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran, Iran. July 2022. Mehr News Agency / Khamenei.ir / Wikimedia Commons

Russia Cherishes Ambitions but Loses Positions in the Middle East

The Ukraine war has generated shockwaves far beyond the Donbas battlefields, and the Middle East has absorbed and returned the variegated impacts and, as a result, has attracted increased attention in recent weeks. Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to visit Tehran, Iran, on July 19, aiming to counter United ...

PRIO Blogs

Tuesday, 15 Mar 2022

Russian soldiers in Aleppo, Syria in 2016. Ministry of Defense of Russia / Wikimedia Commons

Will the Russian-Ukrainian War Resonate in Syria?

The predictable and yet shockingly brutal Russian invasion into Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has in the course of three weeks sent many tremors across the world system. Major stock markets experience strong corrections, oil prices register new highs, importers of wheat and sunflower oil are nervously checking their stocks, ...

News

Monday, 8 Nov 2021

Moscow, Russia. General view of the Moscow Kremlin. Photo: A.Savin, WikiCommons

Moscow Pulled Between Afghanistan and Syria

In an article for UIK Panorama, Research Professor Pavel Baev writes about the inherent weaknesses in Russia's capacity to pursue an ambitious foreign policy, which are getting exposed in the wake Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan.

Current projects

Project

Oct 2023 – Sep 2026

Russian Approaches to Peace Processes (RAPP)

Led by Kristian Berg Harpviken.

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