Pavel K. Baev

Research Professor

Pavel K. Baev
Mobile phone: +47 90 65 71 63

Research Interests

Russian military reform; Russia's conflict management in the Caucasus and Central Asia; energy interests in Russia's foreign and security policy; Russia's relations with Europe and NATO.


​​​​​​I publish a blog on Arctic Politics and Russia's Ambitions on Facebook.

Languages spoken:

Russian; English

Working experience:

After graduating from the MGU in September 1979, I found myself 'behind bars', working as a researcher, and then senior researcher, in a 'post-box': a Research Institute of the USSR Ministry of Defence.
It was only in August 1988 that I left it to join a newly-created Institute of Europe in USSR Academy of Sciences, where I worked as a head of section for military-political studies until October 1992.
That month I became a PRIOite. Since then, besides holding the position of senior researcher, I was from July 1995 to December 2001, the Editor of Security Dialogue, PRIO's policy-oriented quarterly journal. In 2000-2004, I was the leader of PRIO Foreign and Security Policies program; in 2002-2005, I was the head of a working group at the Center for the Study of Civil War (CSCW); in 1999-2005, I was a member of PRIO Board. In August 2005, I applied for being evaluated for professorial competence (Forsker 1), and in March 2006, the committee of peers produced a positive conclusion, making me a Research Professor. In May 2011, Strobe Talbott invited me to become a Senior Non-Resident Fellow at the Brookings Institutions, a privilege I value greatly. Since July 2013, I am also a Senior Associate Fellow at the Institut Francais des Relations Internationales (IFRI), affiliated with the Russia/NIS Centre. 


It was my luck that got me from a 'regular' Moscow school (no. 648) to the Geographical Department of the Moscow State University (MGU) in September 1974. In June 1979, I graduated with MA in Political Geography (that 'B' in the last exam in 'Scientific Communism' meant no cum laude or 'red diploma'). In September 1983, I was accepted into a doctoral track in the Institute of USA and Canada, USSR Academy of Sciences - and in May 1988, I received my PhD in International Relations.


PRIO started tracking events online in 2007. This listing is not complete. Past events may be mentioned in our news archive.


The following publications are specific to the PRIO Middle East Centre. A more complete list is available at

All Publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Baev, Pavel K. (2017) The Russian Navy is Adrift in the Syrian Doldrums, International Relations and Diplomacy 5(11): 643–649.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia as Opportunist or Spoiler in the Middle East?, The International Spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs 50(2): 8–21.

MidEast Policy Brief

Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Predictable and Unexpected Compromise: UN Humanitarian Aid Comes to Syria for Another Year, MidEast Policy Brief, 2. Oslo: PRIO.

Book Chapter

Baev, Pavel K. (2020) Bad Judgment and a Chain of Blunders: Soviet Responses to the Iranian Revolution, in Suzanne Maloney, ed., The Iranian Revolution at Forty. Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press (192–195).
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Turkey and Russia, in Alpaslan Ozerdem, ed., The Routledge Handbook of Turkish Politics. London: Routledge (413–424).
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Turkey's ambiguous strategic rapprochement with Russia, in Ersen, Emre; & Seckin Kostem, eds, Turkey's Pivot to Eurasia. New York: Routledge (48–63).

Non-refereed Journal Article

Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Between Syria and Afghanistan, crisis management becomes too onerous for Russia, UIK Panorama.

Popular Article

Baev, Pavel K. (2022) Russian influence fades in the Middle East, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 28 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Moscow cannot find opening to boost its role in the Middle East, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 17 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Russia tries to counter US moves in the Middle East, in vain, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 1 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2020) Russia Caught in Web of Middle Eastern Intrigues, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 28 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2020) Russia Stages Parade for Troubled Naval Fleet, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 27 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2020) Russia Muddles Through Fog of Libyan War and Haze of Syrian ‘Peace’, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 8 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2020) The Russian-Saudi Oil Deal Bodes ill for Russia’s Intervention in Syria, Panorama, 30 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2020) Pondering upon Post-Pandemic Revolutions…and Russia, ISPI Commentary, 10 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2020) Russia Exploits Middle East to Subvert Europe, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 27 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russia finds few fruits to harvest in the scramble for eastern Syria, Order from Chaos, 18 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Putin's Indifference to Turkish Offensive in Syria, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russian-Turkish missile deal enacted by weakening autocrats, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 16 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Kremlin Tries to Pivot Attention to Syria Upon Release of Mueller Report, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 25 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Iranian Deal Leaves Russia in Deeper Isolation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 6 April.

Report - External Series

Baev, Pavel K. (2019) The impacts of the Syrian intervention on Russian strategic culture, Security Insights, 33. Garmisch-Partenkirchen: George Marshall Center for European Security Studies.